Indian benchmark indices ended the week with a decline of 0.7%, weighed down by heightened volatility. A host of key domestic and global events lined up in the coming days are expected to influence market direction when trading resumes on Monday.
On Friday, the Nifty jumped 243.45 points, or 0.99%, to close at 24,853.15, supported by strong buying in IT and FMCG stocks.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said the Indian stock market witnessed significant volatility during the week, primarily due to turbulence in global bond markets. Weak U.S. bond auctions and rising Treasury yields triggered a global risk-off sentiment, leading to sharp midweek sell-offs. However, Nair noted that the Indian market remained resilient, buoyed by strong buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail participants, even as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities. He added that the next major triggers for the market include India’s GDP data, the U.S. federal budget, inflation figures, and weekly jobless claims.
Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week
1. Trump’s tariff salvo
US President Donald Trump has reignited the tariff debate, this time threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union. On Friday, he said that discussions with the EU were “going nowhere.” He also criticized the bloc’s trade policies, barriers, and taxes, calling the resulting trade imbalance with the United States “totally unacceptable.”
Trump further warned smartphone manufacturers, including Apple, of a potential 25% tariff if devices sold in the US are not manufactured domestically.
Also Read: Apple shares fall 4% after Trump threatens to impose 25% tariff. Here's why
2. Q4FY25 earnings
The earnings season is in its final leg, with over 2,000 BSE-listed companies set to announce their quarterly results this week.
The Street will be closely tracking several of them. Key results expected include Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), Info Edge (India), Aurobindo Pharma, Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry), Awfis Space Solutions, Balaji Amines, Olectra Greentech, EPACK Durable, Birlasoft, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC), Bajaj Auto, SJVN, Sobha, Suzlon Energy, and FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa).
Markets will also react to the Q4 earnings of NTPC and JK Cement, which were announced after market hours on Saturday.
3. US Markets
Indian markets will also take cues from Wall Street, which ended lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 256.02 points, or 0.61%, to close at 41,603.10. The S&P 500 dropped 39.19 points, or 0.67%, to end at 5,659.91, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 188.53 points, or 1%, to settle at 18,737.20.
4) FII/DII Action
Market action will largely hinge on the behaviour of foreign institutional investors (FIIs). On Friday, FIIs were net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 1,794.59 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also remained net buyers with inflows of Rs 299.78 crore.
Read More: FIIs withdraw Rs 11,591 crore from domestic markets this week. May purchases narrow to Rs 13,835 crore
5) Technical Factors
Decoding Nifty’s technical setup, Bajaj Broking Research noted that the index formed a small bullish candle with an upper shadow on the charts, staying within the previous session’s trading range—indicating consolidation around the 24,800 level. This suggests the index may enter a short-term consolidation phase in the 24,400–25,200 range, to absorb the overbought conditions reflected in the daily stochastic oscillator after the recent sharp rally.
"Within this broader consolidation, a move above Friday’s high of 24,946 could open the path towards 25,100–25,200 in the coming sessions. Conversely, a break below the nearly identical lows of the last two sessions (24,669) may trigger an extended decline towards 24,500–24,400," the brokerage said.
It added that key short-term support lies in the 24,350–24,400 zone—a confluence area marked by the previous week’s low, the 20-day EMA, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 23,935 to 25,116.
6) Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee snapped a three-day losing streak on Friday, appreciating by 50 paise to close at Rs 85.45 against the U.S. dollar. The rebound was driven by a sharp decline in the dollar index, strong domestic equities, and improved global risk appetite, even as foreign fund outflows and elevated crude prices continued to exert pressure.
The rupee, which had lost 53 paise over the previous three sessions, traded with heavy volatility in the interbank forex market. Forex analysts attributed the recovery to broad-based weakness in the greenback.
“We expect the rupee to trade with a positive bias on underlying weakness in the U.S. dollar index and improved global risk sentiment. However, selling pressure from foreign investors may cap sharp gains,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, as quoted by PTI.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.60% to 99.36, weighed down by lower U.S. Treasury yields and renewed demand for riskier assets.
7) Corporate action
Over a dozen stocks will hit their record dates for dividends in the upcoming five-day trading week. Notable among them are L&T Finance, Trident, Infosys, ITC, and Angel One.
Read more: Corporate actions: Infosys, ITC and Bajaj Finance among 12 stocks with record dates next week. Do you own any?
8) IPOs This Week
Three mainboard IPOs and two SME IPOs are set to open this week. On the mainboard, the IPOs of Prostarm Info Systems, Aegis Vopak Terminals, and Leela Hotels will be launched. Prostarm will open on Tuesday, May 27, while Aegis Vopak and Leela Hotels will open for subscription on Monday, May 26.
In the SME segment, Nikita Papers and Blue Water Logistics will launch their IPOs on Tuesday.
9. Crude Oil
Crude oil prices continue to be a key market factor, given their influence on inflation trends. U.S. WTI crude settled at $61.76, up $0.56 or 0.92%, while Brent crude futures hovered near $64.78, gaining $0.59 or 0.92%.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
On Friday, the Nifty jumped 243.45 points, or 0.99%, to close at 24,853.15, supported by strong buying in IT and FMCG stocks.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said the Indian stock market witnessed significant volatility during the week, primarily due to turbulence in global bond markets. Weak U.S. bond auctions and rising Treasury yields triggered a global risk-off sentiment, leading to sharp midweek sell-offs. However, Nair noted that the Indian market remained resilient, buoyed by strong buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail participants, even as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities. He added that the next major triggers for the market include India’s GDP data, the U.S. federal budget, inflation figures, and weekly jobless claims.
Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week
1. Trump’s tariff salvo
US President Donald Trump has reignited the tariff debate, this time threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union. On Friday, he said that discussions with the EU were “going nowhere.” He also criticized the bloc’s trade policies, barriers, and taxes, calling the resulting trade imbalance with the United States “totally unacceptable.”
Trump further warned smartphone manufacturers, including Apple, of a potential 25% tariff if devices sold in the US are not manufactured domestically.
Also Read: Apple shares fall 4% after Trump threatens to impose 25% tariff. Here's why
2. Q4FY25 earnings
The earnings season is in its final leg, with over 2,000 BSE-listed companies set to announce their quarterly results this week.
The Street will be closely tracking several of them. Key results expected include Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), Info Edge (India), Aurobindo Pharma, Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry), Awfis Space Solutions, Balaji Amines, Olectra Greentech, EPACK Durable, Birlasoft, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC), Bajaj Auto, SJVN, Sobha, Suzlon Energy, and FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa).
Markets will also react to the Q4 earnings of NTPC and JK Cement, which were announced after market hours on Saturday.
3. US Markets
Indian markets will also take cues from Wall Street, which ended lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 256.02 points, or 0.61%, to close at 41,603.10. The S&P 500 dropped 39.19 points, or 0.67%, to end at 5,659.91, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 188.53 points, or 1%, to settle at 18,737.20.
4) FII/DII Action
Market action will largely hinge on the behaviour of foreign institutional investors (FIIs). On Friday, FIIs were net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 1,794.59 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also remained net buyers with inflows of Rs 299.78 crore.
Read More: FIIs withdraw Rs 11,591 crore from domestic markets this week. May purchases narrow to Rs 13,835 crore
5) Technical Factors
Decoding Nifty’s technical setup, Bajaj Broking Research noted that the index formed a small bullish candle with an upper shadow on the charts, staying within the previous session’s trading range—indicating consolidation around the 24,800 level. This suggests the index may enter a short-term consolidation phase in the 24,400–25,200 range, to absorb the overbought conditions reflected in the daily stochastic oscillator after the recent sharp rally.
"Within this broader consolidation, a move above Friday’s high of 24,946 could open the path towards 25,100–25,200 in the coming sessions. Conversely, a break below the nearly identical lows of the last two sessions (24,669) may trigger an extended decline towards 24,500–24,400," the brokerage said.
It added that key short-term support lies in the 24,350–24,400 zone—a confluence area marked by the previous week’s low, the 20-day EMA, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 23,935 to 25,116.
6) Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee snapped a three-day losing streak on Friday, appreciating by 50 paise to close at Rs 85.45 against the U.S. dollar. The rebound was driven by a sharp decline in the dollar index, strong domestic equities, and improved global risk appetite, even as foreign fund outflows and elevated crude prices continued to exert pressure.
The rupee, which had lost 53 paise over the previous three sessions, traded with heavy volatility in the interbank forex market. Forex analysts attributed the recovery to broad-based weakness in the greenback.
“We expect the rupee to trade with a positive bias on underlying weakness in the U.S. dollar index and improved global risk sentiment. However, selling pressure from foreign investors may cap sharp gains,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, as quoted by PTI.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.60% to 99.36, weighed down by lower U.S. Treasury yields and renewed demand for riskier assets.
7) Corporate action
Over a dozen stocks will hit their record dates for dividends in the upcoming five-day trading week. Notable among them are L&T Finance, Trident, Infosys, ITC, and Angel One.
Read more: Corporate actions: Infosys, ITC and Bajaj Finance among 12 stocks with record dates next week. Do you own any?
8) IPOs This Week
Three mainboard IPOs and two SME IPOs are set to open this week. On the mainboard, the IPOs of Prostarm Info Systems, Aegis Vopak Terminals, and Leela Hotels will be launched. Prostarm will open on Tuesday, May 27, while Aegis Vopak and Leela Hotels will open for subscription on Monday, May 26.
In the SME segment, Nikita Papers and Blue Water Logistics will launch their IPOs on Tuesday.
9. Crude Oil
Crude oil prices continue to be a key market factor, given their influence on inflation trends. U.S. WTI crude settled at $61.76, up $0.56 or 0.92%, while Brent crude futures hovered near $64.78, gaining $0.59 or 0.92%.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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